Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
Trade links with Israel have strengthened in the past few years, even as the value of goods exchanged with Iran has diminished. Iran accounted for $3.9 billion worth of India's exports in the four quarters ending December 2019, compared to $3.6 billion to Israel. However, India's exports to Iran dropped to $1.2 billion as of December 2023, on a rolling four-quarter basis, while exports to Israel grew to $6.1 billion in the same period.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
The issues around trade gaps, especially around steel and aluminium tariffs imposed by the US, will be addressed separately.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have crossed the $1 trillion milestone in the April 2000-September 2024 period, firmly establishing the country's reputation as a safe and key investment destination globally. According to data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), the cumulative amount of FDI, including equity, reinvested earnings and other capital, stood at $1,033.40 billion during the said period.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. Bajaj Finance climbed nearly 2 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
In a dramatic shift in Canada's foreign policy, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday declared that the long-standing economic and security relationship between Canada and the United States has ended, responding to US President Donald Trump's announcement of new auto tariffs that could severely impact Canada's economy, Politico reported.
Much on the expected lines, Beijing reacted angrily to Hands' visit, saying that it violates the one-China principle to which London is a signatory.
India and China on Monday decided to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra as the two sides agreed to take certain people-centric steps to 'stabilise and rebuild' ties.
In his first meeting with Bangladesh Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday flagged concerns over the attacks on minorities, including Hindus and conveyed that any rhetoric that vitiated the environment was best avoided.
Imports too declined by 16.31 per cent to $37.39 billion.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
President Xi Jinping has said that no one can ever stop Taiwan's reunification with China as he signed off 2024 amid growing anxieties in the country over the continued slowdown of the economy and the return of Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose punitive tariffs and trade measures against Beijing in his second term.
'We do India great disservice if we continue to perpetuate a flawed narrative on trade, one based on myths rather than facts,' says Hardeep Singh Puri.
'While the current pause offers temporary reprieve and alleviates any immediate legal pressure, the long-term implications remain uncertain.'
Trump spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Xi Jinping. This could indicate the possibility of America and China reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India, points out Ambassador Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
'We may see even more restrictive policies during 2.0.'
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 26,533 crore from the Indian equity market this month so far owing to increasing allocations to China, concerns over muted corporate earnings and elevated valuation of domestic stocks. While the sell-off continues, the quantum of net outflows has significantly reduced compared to October, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) withdrew Rs 94,017 crore ($11.2 billion) on a net basis.
The Indian government does not track the number of undocumented Indian immigrants residing in the US. Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh, in a written response to a query in the Rajya Sabha, said these immigrants have "legally exited India" but have either overstayed their visa validity, or have entered the US illegally or without valid documents. The response comes at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on a two-day visit to the US, during which he will hold a bilateral meeting with President Trump. The two leaders are likely to discuss India-US cooperation in sectors like trade, investment, energy, defense, technology and immigration.
'The strategic direction of the relationship will not be affected. But the perception has been affected.'
Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, State Bank of India, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra and Asian Paints were the other gainers. However, Zomato, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti and Tata Motors were among the laggards.
'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) chairman Bibek Debroy passed away this morning, a senior EAC-PM official said. He was admitted to AIIMS. Debroy (69) was educated in Ramakrishna Mission School, Narendrapur; Presidency College, Kolkata; Delhi School of Economics; and Trinity College, Cambridge.
'Trump has no more elections to fight and his soaring ambition, which is no secret, will be to carve out a presidential legacy that outshines by far all his mediocre predecessors.' 'Trump's turnaround on the H-1B visa debate shows that he can take tough decisions and there are no holy cows in his domain,' asserts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Musk said on Friday that he believes India-US ties are "trending positive" and that he favours an enhanced trade partnership between the two nations.
'It was inspired by the Hamas attack and was like their attack -- well planned and well executed.'
It would be a challenge to India's policy makers how to deal with Trump so that mutual economic growth remains sustained and mutual understanding on global issues are not hampered, observes Dr Rajaram Panda.
The government on Saturday lifted the ban on onion exports but imposed a minimum export price (MEP) of $550 per tonne, amid ongoing Lok Sabha elections in the country. Last night, the government imposed a 40 per cent duty on export of onions. In August last year, India had imposed a 40 per cent export duty on onions up to December 31, 2023.
Trading sentiment in the equity market this week will be guided by global trends, foreign fund movement, macroeconomic data announcements and RBI's interest rate decision, analysts said. The monthly auto sales data announcement would also be tracked by investors this week.
Early this week, the US imposed sanctions on suppliers to Pakistan's ballistic missile programme, including three companies from China.
'Additionally, the significant employment multiplier will boost direct and indirect jobs of up to 1.1 million.'
Narendra Modi's promise to allow states a bigger say in strategising and building foreign policy is unexceptionable, says TP Sreenivasan.
Dr Jaishankar is expected to discuss the dates for the fifth Quad leaders' summit in India later this year.
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, Adani Ports and Kotak Mahindra Bank were among the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services jumped nearly 6 per cent after the IT services company reported an 11.95 per cent jump in the December quarter net profit to Rs 12,380 crore. Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Infosys and Bajaj Finserv were the other big gainers.
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